Brad Free's Daily Del Mar Plays
Wednesday, September 9
It's the end of summer, and no complaints even though this bankroll sadly will finish in the red. But the deficit is small, and we were only one tough beat away (Aug. 9, race 5) from it being a season to remember.
If closing day is a bust and the bankroll ends up down $200, I will consider the season a virtual success. After all, at one point we were practically buried (in the hole more than $500). It was fun to climb back this far. And who knows? Maybe we can get lucky closing day.
To recap Monday, the big race-2 win by Value Plus ($6.60) stamps her as the top juvenile filly in California. Her odds were below the 2.50-1 cutoff. No bet. Value Plus won by five, and looks like a deserving favorite for the Oak Leaf Stakes. Adios, Mi Sueno.
In race 5, Zulu King ($15 win) and Poet Laureate ($15 win) ran like typical first-time starters. They finished off the board; losing exacta wagers ($12) made the race a $42 loss.
In race 8, the Del Mar Futurity, Sterling Outlook ($25 win) ran poorly at 4-1. His fourth-place finish also blew up the exacta wagers ($20). The race was a $45 loss.
So we are down $152 into the final day. There are two plays, both are high prices.
Race 3
Cost of Freedom is favored, and bettors who like even-money after a one-year layoff can go for it. Dancing in Silks was fortunate to win his comeback; the runner-up Details R Sketchy was best.
Meanwhile, 8-1 outsider Candy Pull often outruns his odds. He ran well last time, better than it looks, rallying wide in a big field before he went flat. Candy Pull is not as good as the favorites, but if Cost of Freedom needs a start, and if Dancing in Silks is not as good as his last suggests, Candy Pull is qualified to upset.
The bet: $25 win Candy Pull (minimum odds 6-1).
Race 8
Caribbean Sunset gave division leader Forever Together a battle last time. It makes Caribbean Sunset an apparent standout in the Grade 2 Palomar Handicap. Or, not.
You see, the favorite is buried on the far outside, in no-man's land coming out of the turf chute at a mile and a sixteenth. It's a tough place to start from. She might be good enough to overcome the post. The obvious alternative is Grade 1-placed Gotta Have Her.
The longshot is Dawn After Dawn, dropping in class after chasing Zenyatta. Dawn After Dawn has been competitive at this G2 level, and trainer John Sadler enters closing day on a 13-for-39 streak. Dawn After Dawn might not win, but she can outrun her 12-1 odds.
The bet: $10 win Dawn After Dawn (minimum odds 9-1); $10 exacta Caribbean Sunset over Dawn After Dawn; and $5 exacta Gotta Have Her over Dawn After Dawn (no minimum on the exactas).
Okay, that's a wrap for summer 2009. The L.A. County Fair meet at Fairplex Park begins on Thursday. Early indications are it will be a chalk-player's delight. See you next time.
Below are the totals into closing day.
Previous day wagers: $87
Previous day return: $0
Previous day loss: $87
Total wagers meet: $1,761
Total return meet: $1,609
Total loss meet: $152